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Significance
In response, federal-aligned authorities have started mobilising regional militias and even armed civilians to bolster their regular forces. Both have raised fears of an escalation of the conflict.
Impacts
The federal army seems to have suffered significantly during the withdrawal, with thousands of fighters and much heavy weaponry captured.
Conflict in Amhara and Afar will intensify disruptions to humanitarian aid into Tigray and expand needs beyond Tigray.
Continued suspensions of Western aid would exacerbate high inflation and economic difficulties.
The growing autonomy of regional authorities may further weaken federal influence over regional decisions.
Keywords:
Ethiopia,
AF,
international relations,
politics,
social,
aid,
arts,
civil war,
ethnic,
government,
human rights,
military,
opposition,
regional,
security,
talks,
Aerospace & defence
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
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