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Significance
Zemmour has prominence through various media channels and his attacks on established political leaders have already begun. He principally threatens National Rally (NR) leader Marine Le Pen: she has failed to consolidate the far-right vote and her party performed poorly in June’s regional elections.
Impacts
Zemmour’s candidacy would put pressure on Le Pen to adopt a more hard-right election campaign.
A wave of illegal migration or Islamist attack would provide Zemmour with an opportunity to consolidate support.
Despite Zemmour’s intention to run for president, a second-round election run-off between Macron and Le Pen is the most likely outcome.
Keywords:
France,
EUR,
politics,
social,
election,
immigration,
media,
opposition,
party,
population,
religion
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
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