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Significance
McCarthy has a difficult role within a Republican Party that remains beholden to former President Donald Trump but has elements that wish to maintain a degree of autonomy from him. The coming months, as the Democrats’ agenda moves through the House, will also test his legislative skills.
Impacts
Republicans only need a net gain of five seats in the 2022 midterm elections to take control of the House.
The redistricting process now beginning in all 50 states should result in more winnable seats for Republicans in 2022.
McCarthy’s alignment with Trump appears sufficient to prevent any Republican challenge to his becoming Speaker.
As Speaker, McCarthy would conduct constant conflict with the Biden White House on most issues, with China the main exception.
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2021
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