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Significance
Anti-drugs rhetoric from senior Taliban figures is intended to allay such concerns, but a sustainable anti-opium strategy would be difficult and destabilising for the Taliban to implement.
Impacts
The surge in opium prices, noted after the Taliban announced a possible ban, will probably prove fleeting.
Methamphetamine production will increase, but is unlikely to displace opium/heroin as Afghanistan’s main illicit export.
Climate change will exacerbate drought risks, increasing farmers’ preference for opium over less resilient crops, such as wheat.
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Turkey,
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2021
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