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Significance
The main frontrunners are the president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, Ile-de-France regional head Valerie Pecresse and Michel Barnier, formerly the EU's chief Brexit negotiator. Barnier is the most popular candidate within LR, but Bertrand’s candidacy holds the most appeal when it comes to national support.
Impacts
Intensifying far-right rivalry is weakening the appeal of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, to the benefit of Macron.
Given the sensitivity of immigration ahead of the election, meaningful reform to EU immigration policy is unlikely before mid-2022.
Amid the economic impact of COVID-19 in poorer regions, Macron will be under pressure to push for more flexible EU fiscal rules.
Keywords:
France,
EUR,
economy,
politics,
election,
government,
opposition,
party,
fiscal,
foreign policy,
immigration,
policy
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
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