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Significance
The opposition now has a real chance to unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the 2022 elections for the first time since Fidesz’s 2010 landslide. Vast incumbent advantages and a likely spending spree fuelled by EU funds still make Orban the likelier winner, but as a political outsider, Marki-Zay may appeal beyond the opposition’s traditional base.
Impacts
Russia retains an interest in keeping Orban in power and Kremlin meddling in the election is possible.
The United States has an interest in change and may contribute to it, for instance through sanctions, as it did in Bulgaria last summer.
To avoid appearing to interfere in member state politics, the EU will postpone planned moves to withhold funding from Hungary.
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2021
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