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Significance
Hosted in Sochi by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders repeated past general commitments to stability, border demarcation and open transport communications. The clashes on November 15-16 were the largest, though not the first, military escalation since the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku seems to be waging a campaign of attrition to force Yerevan to submit to its wishes.
Impacts
The resurgence in fighting close to where Russian peacekeepers are deployed highlights Moscow's limitations as rule-maker.
Iran may increase its diplomatic support for a weakened Armenia in order to maintain a regional balance.
Turkey will encourage or reject a possible rapprochement with Armenia, depending on what Azerbaijan does.
Keywords:
Armenia,
Azerbaijan,
RUCIS,
Caucasus,
Russia,
Iran,
Turkey,
AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA,
international relations,
border conflict,
civil war,
foreign trade,
military,
railway,
talks,
transport
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2021
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