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Significance
Competition between the jihadist groups remains tense and insecurity is being stoked further by intercommunal conflict over land and water resources that overstretched security forces are struggling to contain.
Impacts
Economic hardship will increase in the Lake Chad region amid the effects of climate change and economic slowdown due to the pandemic.
Jihadist dominance in the region is almost certain to swing back and forth between ISWAP and Boko Haram.
The use of the Boko Haram moniker to describe all jihadist operations poses challenges to accurate attribution of attacks.
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2021
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