This is part of a wider rift between Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Syrian Kurdish forces, the latter divided among themselves. The KRG closed two border crossings with Syria between December and late January. Bilateral tensions are compounded by growing animosity between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the dominant political force in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has strong links with some Syrian Kurdish factions.
The December closure of cross-border to oil trade for the first time could set a precedent for further stoppages.
Any suspension of the oil trade would have a severe negative effect on the economy of north-east Syria.
Full-scale conflict between the PKK and Iraqi Kurdish forces is unlikely, but low-level skirmishes are probable.
