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Significance

President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani has given Mali a trade route to the Atlantic following the imposition of heavy trade and financial sanctions by West Africa. However, he is under pressure to adopt a tougher line against Bamako and faces domestic challenges as the opposition starts to mobilise on key governance and socio-economic issues.

Impacts

Maintaining its Mauritanian trade route should enable Mali to avoid a humanitarian crisis.

The upcoming trial of the former president will test the level of residual support he enjoys in political circles.

Ghazouani will sustain his consensual style of government in the face of more critical opposition.

The challenge of rising global wheat prices will be mitigated by the government’s domestic food security plans.

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