After decades of delayed structural transition, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government is presenting recent rapid growth as evidence of its successful management of the economy. While it has made important improvements in fiscal management, a combination of short- and long-term problems suggest that success will be temporary.
If Orban retains power, he will rely more on Western economic institutions and become more responsive to EU demands.
Economic needs will tighten Orban's recent room for manoeuvre between Germany, Russia, the United States and China.
If the opposition wins, its economic policy space will be restricted, possibly foreshadowing Orban’s return in four years.
In either scenario, Hungary’s prominence as a trail-blazer for ‘illiberal democracy’ will diminish.
