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Significance

Saudi Arabia has assertively pursued its own interests vis-à-vis oil prices and Yemen and has refused to take sides in the Russia-Ukraine war. Over the last decade, Riyadh has come to doubt US commitment to the bilateral relationship and regional security. Old assumptions of common interests no longer hold sway.

Impacts

Biden’s stance on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will become trickier to sustain if the 86-year-old king withdraws from public life.

Biden’s release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve suggests an attempt to erode Saudi influence over prices.

Riyadh will explore the potential for alternative security partnerships, including with Europe and China.

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