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Significance

EU states have said previously that payment must be in euros or dollars, as stipulated in contracts. A new advisory note from the Commission suggests that buyers could comply with Moscow's demands without violating sanctions if they clarify that payment is final once they transfer the foreign-currency sum due, not (as Russia wants) when Gazprom, the recipient, receives funds converted into rubles.

Impacts

If Russia's experiment with ruble payments for gas succeeds, it may seek to extend it to other commodities.

If supply disruptions occur, they will come in waves as due dates for payment vary among customers.

Russia's obstinate stance on payment will hasten EU efforts to reduce structural dependence on Russian gas.

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