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Significance
The global economy is unquestionably undergoing a period of structural transformation shaped by the war and an acceleration of pre-existing dynamics. These changes will create new winners and losers, but will do so without upending the geopolitical status quo or drastically rolling back international economic interdependence.
Impacts
Growth in goods trade and foreign direct investment has been slowing since 2008-09 but flows of data, capital and services will rise ahead.
Re-shoring will rise as nations aim for self sufficiency, but slowly; every industrial economy bar China grew more import-dependent in 2020.
Global trade will continue to rely on three hubs: Europe, led by Germany; North America, led by the United States; and Asia, led by China.
Keywords:
International,
INT,
economy,
border conflict,
capital flows,
finance,
foreign investment,
foreign trade,
investment
© Oxford Analytica 2022. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2022
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