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Significance

Fears that the draft would be overly left-wing have proved largely unfounded but there are gaps that cause concern. Polls show the draft may not be approved in a plebiscite on September 4.

Impacts

Public rejection of the constitution would be a major blow to the new president’s declining approval ratings.

The transitory norms and laws to implement the constitution will be key to reassure investors.

The process has failed to act as a channel for national dialogue to reach broad consensus in response to the social protests in late 2019.

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