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Significance

However, despite the significant publicity given to the deal by the government, it still falls short of an overarching host government agreement (HGA). The deadline for this has been postponed to December 2022, with 2025 the target for a final investment decision (FID).

Impacts

Delaying the FID beyond the 2025 polls would weaken Samia’s position in the ruling party; failure to close the deal would be more damaging.

A timely HGA would stimulate private and public investment in onshore infrastructure and services, which would increase further with a FID.

The FID will ensure further offshore and onshore exploration, increasing the importance of the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation.

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