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Significance

The fire has exacerbated electricity black-outs amid widespread shortages of food and other basic items. The government response to the crisis has so far included opening up wholesale and retail trade to foreign investment, pursuing new vaccine export deals, and allowing state-run exchange houses to both buy and sell hard foreign currency for pesos.

Impacts

Tourism is returning, but will be slow to reach pre-pandemic levels; shortages and blackouts will dent hopes of a strong winter season.

Exceptions and restrictions will blunt the impact of economic reforms intended to address the country’s crises.

Victory for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential election this year could bring new economic opportunities for Cuba.

Emigration reduces the likelihood of major protests but will also undermine Cuba's development prospects.

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