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Significance
Lebanon also only has a caretaker government with restricted powers, at a time when the economy has contracted for four consecutive years. A staff-level IMF package worth USD3bn was approved in April 2022 but the government has failed to address the majority of the conditions needed to gain board-level approval.
Impacts
The brain drain, especially amongst the professional classes, will continue, undermining Lebanon’s long-term economic potential.
Poorer Lebanese will attempt illegal immigration to Europe.
Economic conditions will limit Syrian refugees' access to the remnants of Lebanon’s public services, including education and healthcare.
The tourism sector offers hope for the economy, but cannot substitute for an IMF deal.
Keywords:
Lebanon,
ME/NAF,
IMF-World Bank,
Europe,
economy,
politics,
social,
capital flows,
corruption,
debt,
election,
exchange rate,
government,
policy,
population,
poverty,
prices,
public sector,
constitution,
crime,
education,
electricity,
health,
immigration,
water
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2022
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