Their presence has made little dent in jihadist activities there. Jama‘at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (JNIM), an affiliate of al-Qaida, is increasingly focusing on Wagner. Meanwhile, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) has achieved considerable momentum in the north-eastern Menaka and Gao Regions, exposing Wagner’s inefficacy but also highlighting the deep divisions among ISGS’s opponents.
Wagner’s lack of results, and the reportedly domineering and aggressive tone of its personnel, could cause tensions with the Malian army.
Malian authorities’ difficulties in meeting contractual payment obligations could also alienate Wagner.
Failures in Mali could blunt appetite in neighbouring Burkina Faso for greater Russian involvement there.
If a broad anti-ISGS coalition comes together, JNIM will likely benefit.
