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Significance

Lukashenka told Aleynik, promoted from deputy minister, that his job "won't be easy" -- an understatement given the problems facing Belarus. More reliant than ever on Russia economically because of Western sanctions, the government in Minsk has resisted pressure to enter the Ukraine war.

Impacts

Talk of Belarus entering the war may be Russian propaganda designed to divert Ukraine's war effort.

The Belarusian armed forces' willingness to fight a potentially losing war is unknown.

Belarus's offer to allow Ukrainian grain exports to cross its territory will meet with sceptism.

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