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Significance
The 2024 presidential elections looking increasingly unlikely to produce a political transition. The prospect of a third term for President Nicolas Maduro is strengthened by the implosion of the opposition. Dialogue efforts in Mexico will be critical for securing electoral conditions that will put the next presidential term on a legitimate footing.
Impacts
The government will seek to snuff out any renewed opposition traction, including seeking the arrest of the new National Assembly president.
The opposition's implosion inevitably strengthens the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela ahead of the 2024 election.
Recriminations from the vote against Guaido will distract from planned opposition primaries to select a unity presidential candidate.
Keywords:
Venezuela,
LA/C,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
election,
government,
growth,
opposition,
policy,
prices,
protest,
sanctions,
wages
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
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