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Significance
Lebanon is experiencing a political vacuum against the backdrop of an economic meltdown. Politicians have failed to elect a president since Michel Aoun’s term ended on October 31. A new government has yet to be appointed following May 2022 elections; the caretaker one only has limited powers.
Impacts
A new uprising in the West Bank and Gaza could involve Hezbollah, which would end all prospects of a quick government formation in Lebanon.
Qatar could add economic incentives to their support for Joseph Aoun, which might encourage members of Hezbollah’s bloc to endorse him.
Suleiman Franjieh, backed by Hezbollah, could offer guarantees of key ministries to the FPM and members of the opposition to get elected.
Keywords:
Lebanon,
ME/NAF,
France,
IMF-World Bank,
Iran,
Israel,
Palestinians,
Qatar,
Russia,
Syria,
international relations,
politics,
election,
government,
opposition,
party,
reform,
constitution,
judicial
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2023
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