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Significance
For the presidential poll, a strong third party candidate, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, poses a stiff challenge to the traditional candidates of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has expressed confidence that it can manage and deliver a high quality election.
Impacts
The defection of a number of southern PDP governors from Atiku's camp will depress his vote totals.
A discrepancy between opinion polls and the final result could trigger major political unrest, especially in the south-east.
A run-off election could result in an extended electoral period with a disruptive impact on economic activity.
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2023
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