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Significance
Western and Ukrainian policymakers have been watching for signs of a major Russian offensive that would satisfy President Vladimir Putin's desire to have something to show after a year. Some, including NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, say it has already begun, in a gradual rather than all-out form.
Impacts
Belarus’s president will resist sending in his army, but will let Russia’s military use his territory.
A new push by either side is possible in Zaporizhia region, a vital but vulnerable link between Crimea and the east.
Washington will maintain pressure on Beijing not to send Russia lethal weapons.
Keywords:
Russia,
Ukraine,
RUCIS,
CIS,
NATO,
United States,
Western Europe,
UKRAINE/RUSSIA,
international relations,
defence,
foreign policy,
invasion,
military,
war,
industry,
politics,
aerospace,
arms
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2023
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