Open figure viewer
Significance
Following tensions in late 2022, Belgrade and Prishtina have moved step-by-step toward a settlement. In late February Kurti and Vucic accepted an EU proposal which may lead to de facto recognition of Kosovo by Serbia in exchange for granting the local Serb community autonomy.
Impacts
Nationalist backlash against a deal with Kosovo may destabilise Serbian domestic politics.
A formal agreement between Belgrade and Prishtina may lead to Romania, Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus and Spain recognising Kosovo.
The EU will closely monitor Prishtina and Belgrade's actions to ensure they do not backtrack on mutual commitments.
The United States will play a central role in convincing the Kosovo government to grant Serbs autonomy.
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
You do not currently have access to this content.
