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Significance
RSF leader Lieutenant-General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo 'Himedti'’ has since mid-2022 promoted several reconciliation agreements between Arab and non-Arab tribes in Darfur. These have helped him expand RSF recruitment to non-Arab communities, and advertise himself as a peacemaker to sceptical opposition partners.
Impacts
The collapse of Himedti's peace deals would hurt his image, but would not deter him from further co-optation and intimidation in Darfur.
The return of Sudanese mercenaries from Libya could further militarise Darfur and exacerbate local conflicts.
Western pressure to root out Russia’s Wagner group will escalate friction between the army and the RSF, Wagner’s main partner.
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2023
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