Aid commitments are on a downward trajectory. In 2022, donors extended over USD2.2bn in assistance out of a budgeted USD4.27bn. Meanwhile, talks are underway between Saudi Arabia and the Huthis (the Shia rebel movement in control of northern Yemen) on a new truce -- the last ended in October 2022.
Investment and capital expenditure levels across the country will remain low.
A ceasefire could help the UN and others better assess economic conditions and manage aid more effectively.
The presence of rival central banks and split currencies will persist through to 2024 at least.
Saudi Arabia will use funds for aid and rebuilding to extract political concessions from warring parties.
Yemen’s geographic proximity to the Gulf helps reduce import costs.
