Open figure viewer
Significance
Iran perceives that it has become isolated in the South Caucasus, as a result of changing geopolitical relations over the past three years. Israel has increased its presence, while traditional ties between Russia, Armenia and Iran have weakened, and Turkish-Azerbaijani relations have strengthened.
Impacts
The strengthening of the Azerbaijan-Turkey axis will increase the possibility of the realisation of the Zangezur corridor to Nakhichevan.
Israel's political, economic and military-intelligence influence will strengthen in Azerbaijan.
An upgrade to transit routes between Iran and Armenia is unlikely at present because of the difficulty of raising the necessary finance.
Keywords:
Iran,
Caucasus,
ME/NAF,
Armenia,
Azerbaijan,
Georgia,
Bulgaria,
Greece,
India,
Israel,
Pakistan,
Russia,
Turkey,
economy,
international relations,
defence,
foreign policy,
foreign trade,
transport,
agriculture,
border conflict,
infrastructure,
military,
railway,
sanctions,
industry,
politics,
road
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
You do not currently have access to this content.
