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Significance
Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin sought the ouster of the defence minister and army chief; there was a threat of fighting in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin initially threatened harsh retaliation but opted for a peaceful solution brokered by his Belarusian counterpart.
Impacts
Pressure will grow on Putin to remove Shoigu.
The mutiny will strengthen those within the military and security services concerned about the other militias, notably Kadyrov’s fighters.
There will be repercussions for intelligence agencies' failure to warn of Wagner's plan to seize the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.
The Kremlin is likely to crack down on hard-line critics of the Russian military.
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2023
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