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Significance
The new regulation’s "national security" justification reflects the increasing resort worldwide to weaponising international trade for political goals and will reinforce efforts on the part of Washington and its allies for supply chain diversification.
Impacts
Even if China begins immediately restricting exports, current estimates do not suggest serious shortages abroad in the short term.
Gallium and germanium production capacity will increase outside China, but it may take years to substitute for Chinese exports.
Countries with significant reserves and mining of relevant ores, notably Congo and Indonesia, may establish themselves as suppliers.
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2023
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