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Significance
For instance, ISWAP-claimed attacks in central Nigeria have declined precipitously from 20 in 2022 to just three so far in 2023. A similar trend applies for other jihadists. Partly this stems from security force pressure, but also local jihadist fragmentation, conflict with bandit groups and inter-jihadist rivalries.
Impacts
Sahel-based jihadists will increase exploratory forays into north-western Nigeria from Benin.
ISWAP may renew efforts to stage major attacks in Abuja.
Any major Nigerian-led regional intervention into Niger to reverse its coup risks adding strains to the country’s over-stretched army.
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2023
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