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Significance

The invasion has consolidated public opinion around President Volodymyr Zelensky and increased the power of the security apparatus, helping kickstart some reforms but also increasing the latter's informal influence. Although parliament is more active, checks and balances are weak. Established political forces have revived old disputes, often looking out-of-touch with a changed Ukraine.

Impacts

The recent overhaul of personnel at the defence ministry is part of a broader effort to reduce corruption.

Developments on the battlefront will be a key factor is shaping the prospects for all political actors in Ukraine.

Western support for Kyiv is unlikely to change regardless of whether elections take place.

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