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Significance

Russian authorities notably expressed interest in investing in Equatorial Guinea’s declining oil sector. Meanwhile, although the ageing Obiang has crushed domestic opposition, he faces major questions over his succession. His son and current heir apparent, Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue (‘Teodorin’) must confront potential challenges from within the ruling family and further afield.

Impacts

High levels of banking sector debt will complicate economic diversification efforts.

Revenue declines will place strains on patronage flows.

The government will struggle to attract increased foreign investment in the oil sector.

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