Open figure viewer
Significance
The vote will reinstate provincial councils that were dissolved in 2019, which will in turn choose new provincial governors. The government is determined to hold an effective election to showcase its improved stability after years of turmoil. The results will affect patronage networks and highlight shifts among the various parties vying for national power.
Impacts
Turnout could be disappointing, diminishing the legitimacy of the results if it is less than 40% of registered voters.
The end of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) board’s term on January 7 may undermine results certification if not extended.
If the premier successfully delivers smooth provincial polls, his SCF backers are more likely to allow him a second term.
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
You do not currently have access to this content.
