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Significance

Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban want production to expand to 19,000 b/d shortly. They are counting on the extractives sector to help boost revenue and shore up the flailing economy.

Impacts

Lack of diplomatic recognition may keep the Taliban dependent on the proceeds of smuggling, even if they want to avoid this.

China, Iran and Uzbekistan will be key economic partners, because of their interest in helping with infrastructure development.

The Taliban may encourage emigration, recognising that high unemployment does not augur well for the stability of the emirate.

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