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Significance
The Russian Navy has lost several warships and other vessels during its war with Ukraine; its main bases in Crimea are vulnerable. Seemingly this is prompting a reconfiguration of its Black Sea forces, with implications for Abkhazia, which is de facto independent of Georgia but is only recognised by Russia and a handful of other states.
Impacts
Russia’s relations with Georgia will remain strained despite the robust growth in trade between the two countries.
The EU and China will continue to support the idea of the Middle Corridor running through Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Russia’s financial support for Abkhazia will diminish as evidenced by Moscow’s decision to refuse supplies of free electricity.
Keywords:
Georgia,
Russia,
RUCIS,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
arms,
border conflict,
defence,
infrastructure,
military,
security,
shipping,
war,
foreign trade
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2024
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