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Significance

The capacity of the global container fleet grew by 7.9% last year but demand for container shipping was flat, triggering a cyclical downturn and a sharp drop in freight rates. All carriers are likely to have made losses in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Impacts

Importers are increasingly switching to a China-plus-one sourcing strategy, causing especially high traffic in the Indian subcontinent.

Container carriers are expected to launch new routes serving the Indian subcontinent directly.

The Panama Canal now allows 24 vessels through daily after more rain recently, but this is still well down on the 2022 average of 35.5.

Prolonged disruption at the Suez and Panama canals will push firms to consider permanently rerouting their supply chains.

Efforts to unblock the Red Sea will intensify as trade tends to surge before Lunar New Year, which sees China’s factories shut for 15 days.

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