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Significance
While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’ control while generally trying to isolate the South China Sea dispute from its wider relations with South-east Asian states.
Impacts
International commercial traffic through the South China Sea will not be greatly affected, absent an unplanned and significant escalation.
The trend towards greater Chinese control over the South China Sea will continue.
Players such as Japan and Australia will be unable to assert significant leverage against China over South China Sea issues.
Keywords:
China,
AP,
Australia,
Japan,
Philippines,
United States,
ASEAN,
CHINA/ASEAN,
international relations,
defence,
foreign policy,
policy,
security,
arms,
arms control,
military,
shipping
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2024
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