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Significance

A glut of Ukrainian agricultural products has driven down prices in neighbouring countries, prompting several governments to impose unilateral import bans. Protests by Polish farmers are the latest example of fierce resistance to Ukraine’s access to European food markets. Trade tensions are complicating political relations among allies and are weakening Kyiv’s efforts to resist the Russian invasion.

Impacts

Ukrainian wheat production might reach 22.5 million metric tonnes for the 2023/24 marketing year, an 11% increase over 2022/23.

Ukraine’s grain exports through Black Sea ports along the so-called ‘humanitarian corridor’ are likely to continue growing.

EU states will find it difficult to implement bloc-wide curbs on imports of Russian food products, but states may impose their own measures.

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