Open figure viewer
Significance
As Reform is polling nationally at 13% and has performed strongly in recent by-elections, the defection is a blow to the Conservatives' chances of retaining voters in former Brexit-supporting constituencies and threatens to erode further their support at the next general election.
Impacts
The next election will likely take place in the second half of the year, probably between September and early November.
The redrawing of constituency boundaries for the next election will make Labour’s path to a majority more difficult.
Should Labour form the next government, its popular support could decline quickly given its limited capacity for public spending.
Keywords:
United Kingdom,
EUR,
politics,
election,
government,
opposition,
party,
fiscal,
health,
immigration,
policy,
economy,
social,
energy
© Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2024
You do not currently have access to this content.
