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Significance
Deepening Gulf-Israel normalisation -- and particularly heavy US-backed efforts to advance a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia -- set the context for the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. Indeed, concerns over that trend, and the related sidelining of the Palestinian cause, may have been a significant trigger for the assault.
Impacts
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will likely prioritise coalition stability over a strategic Israeli-Arab deal.
Arab rulers will be increasingly suspicious of Hamas as its popular support rises, implicitly backing Israeli policy.
Deliberate ambiguity in Israel’s Gaza war aims will further complicate negotiations over a regional end-game.
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2024
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