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Significance
Vostok is expected to produce 2 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2030, with all exports going via the strategically important Northern Sea Route (NSR). The Kremlin hopes it will enable Russia to meet growing energy demand from China and India.
Impacts
The share of taxes derived from oil and gas production in federal tax revenues is likely to continue declining.
Gas exports are unlikely to reach pre-war levels for at least a decade, even if the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to China is built.
Russia’s ambitions to become a liquified natural gas superpower will be constrained by Western sanctions.
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