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Significance

With Russia focused on Ukraine, Kazakhstan has charted a path to reduce its military and security dependency on Moscow. This is apparent in Astana's changing attitudes towards arms procurement, regional security organisations, the importance of China and low-level concerns that Russia poses a military threat.

Impacts

Kazakhstan’s structural dependency on Russian-made weaponry will persist because of compatibility issues.

Kazakhstan will continue spending less than 1% of GDP on its military.

Provocative statements by Russian officials concerning alleged anti-Russian discrimination in Kazakhstan will undermine bilateral relations.

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