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Significance
Maduro appears to be consolidating power, but much may happen before the January 2025 inauguration. Washington is walking back from incautious, early recognition of opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez as incoming president. This is an important ceding of diplomatic space to Colombia, Brazil and Mexico as principal interlocutors between the government and opposition.
Impacts
Ongoing delays in the CNE’s release of comprehensive electoral data will continue to exacerbate political tensions.
The military will be reluctant to increase repression of protests in working-class areas long associated with Chavismo.
Pressure from left-leaning regional governments will make it difficult for Maduro to survive any clear evidence of fraud.
Keywords:
Venezuela,
LA/C,
Brazil,
Colombia,
EU,
Mexico,
United States,
international relations,
politics,
election,
foreign policy,
government,
military,
opposition,
protest,
talks
© Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2024
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