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Significance
With a stronger popular mandate than he received in 2016, Trump will try to push ahead with his ‘America First’ agenda of more tariffs, curbs on immigration, deregulation and tax cuts.
Impacts
Emerging market (EM) bond funds suffered sizeable outflows in the week to November 7 due to the rise in the dollar and Treasury yields.
EM currencies, especially the Mexican peso and the Chinese yuan, and local government bonds are at particular risk from dollar strength.
China’s new fiscal stimulus provides USD1.4tn to restructure local government debts but does little to boost household consumption.
Trump’s victory could upwardly pressure UK bond yields, which have risen since mid-September due to London’s extra borrowing plans.
Keywords:
United States,
INT,
NA,
INTERNATIONAL,
economy,
bonds,
capital flows,
equities,
finance,
growth,
prices,
Capital markets
© Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2024
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