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Significance
His proposed 10% baseline tariff on European car exports could deliver a disproportionately severe blow to the manufacturing corridor between Germany and the Visegrad Four (V4) states of Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary, which already fears that Beijing will retaliate against EU tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports.
Impacts
With its more diversified economy, Poland could emerge relatively unscathed from US tariffs.
European carmakers may need to invest in specialisation in new automotive segments such as high-end EVs and autonomous driving.
If Trump cuts green subsidies, the EU may become more attractive for investment, with the dollar’s strength increasing its competitiveness.
Keywords:
Eastern Europe,
EUR,
Czech Republic,
EU,
Germany,
Hungary,
Poland,
Slovakia,
China,
Romania,
United States,
Baltic states,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
automobile,
foreign investment,
foreign policy,
foreign trade,
government,
investment,
manufacturing,
policy,
technology,
wages,
election,
steel,
employment,
welfare,
growth,
Auto parts,
Automobiles
© Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2024
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