They could also reset China’s growing dominance of battery manufacturing and the goods that require them, as well as reinvigorating e-mobility adoption. However, they will not address China’s advantages in low-cost, high-end mass manufacturing, which allow it to dominate supply chains.
New battery technologies and industrial processes will lead to excess capacity as old technologies decline and new ones gain market share.
OECD nations’ desire to reindustrialise will increase pressures to protect domestic industry, particularly energy transition technologies.
Long lead times needed for new critical raw material supply pose huge investment risks, if the battery market’s use of materials changes.
Early deployment of higher-performance batteries would accelerate peak oil demand.
Even if OECD automakers regained a technological lead in battery design, manufacturing would still gravitate to lower-cost countries.
