...Oxford Analytica Significance This is forcing the region’s central banks to prioritise efforts to curb price pressures over policies to shore up growth. Central Europe’s currencies, particularly the vulnerable Hungarian forint, have entered the period of heightened geopolitical instability...

...Oxford Analytica Headline CENTRAL EUROPE: Trip to Ukraine CENTRAL EUROPE: Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa yesterday met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv...

... in early 2022 will reduce the scope for fiscal tightening, making policy dilemmas more acute. EU concerns about the rule of law in Poland and Hungary threaten funds earmarked for both but have had little impact on market sentiment. Central banks in Central Europe (CE) are under pressure to tighten...

... pressure on Central Europe’s central banks to begin tightening. Impacts Capital markets’ ‘hunt for yield’ will bolster EM bond and equity funds despite concerns about the Fed’s withdrawal of stimulus. The vast majority of investors are behaving as if the current surge in inflation will prove...

...Oxford Analytica Significance This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in growth while expecting the contraction to bring down core inflation rates later this year...

... for rates to remain on hold, a more supportive external environment, underpinned by an easing of US-China trade tensions, would accentuate the policy dilemmas confronting Central Europe’s central banks, especially given rises in inflation. Impacts Germany’s still-negative ten-year bond yield has risen...

... states Eastern Europe Poland CENTRAL EUROPE economy politics social fiscal government health policy pollution election immigration labour party population public sector wages Healthcare equipment & services National spending on health tends to be reflected...

...Oxford Analytica Subject Impact of global policy shifts on monetary policy in Central Europe. Significance The dramatic decline in euro-area government bond yields has helped push down yields across Central Europe, with bond markets now pricing in interest rate cuts in the Czech Republic, only...

... across the euro-area, which is dragging down inflation rates and government bond yields, is starting to dampen growth in Central Europe. Impacts The euro-area economy’s outlook has dimmed, with Germany’s ten-year government bond yield plumbing its lowest level since April 2017. The open Hungarian...

... Minister Andrej Babis, would be suspended until allegations of conflict of interest were resolved. Tensions between the EU and Central Europe (CE) are expected to escalate ahead of the European Parliament (EP) elections due on May 23-26. Impacts The slowdown’s severity will vary among countries...

...Oxford Analytica Significance The long-anticipated change in ECB policy is contributing to the recent tightening in financial conditions. The credibility of central banks in Central Europe (CE), where monetary policies are closely aligned with those of the ECB, is being tested. Impacts...

...Oxford Analytica Subject Central Europe’s resilience to EM sell-off. Significance Central Europe’s economies have withstood intense recent selling pressure in emerging markets (EM), the longest sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis. A confluence of idiosyncratic and generic vulnerabilities...

... Europe EUR Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania EU CENTRAL EUROPE economy industry exchange rate growth monetary policy balance of payments bonds debt equities fiscal foreign investment prices Passers-by in Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange (Reuters/Brendan...

...Oxford Analytica Subject QE’s influence on Central Europe’s bond markets. Significance Hawkish signals from the ECB are adding to recent strains on global bond markets, causing German ten-year Bund yields to shoot up to their highest levels since July. The sell-off is contributing to sharp...

...Oxford Analytica Subject Central banks’ divergent monetary policy stances in Central Europe. Significance The Czech National Bank (CNB) has raised interest rates twice in three months and plans further hikes in the coming months, as surging wages and house prices fuel inflationary pressures...

..., specifically, their respect for EU standards. Such tensions are likely to prompt political debate across Central Europe (CE) about the most effective ways to maintain the high rates of EU fund absorption attained since 2015. On July 11, the Polish government announced an assessment of whether EU funds were put...

...Oxford Analytica Subject The economic outlook after first-quarter data. Significance First-quarter GDP breakdowns indicate that Central Europe (CE) is experiencing a cyclical upswing after a subdued 2016, which saw economic growth slow to an average of 2.6% across the sub-region. Hungary...

...Oxford Analytica Subject The rally in Central Europe’s currencies despite the dovish stance of most of the region’s central banks. Significance The zloty has shot up against the euro this year; the koruna has strengthened sharply in response to the removal by the Czech National Bank (CNB...

... CENTRAL EUROPE economy industry social computers corporate internet investment technology education employment finance fiscal growth public sector © Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social...

... exchange rate marks the beginning of a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policies in Central Europe. ‘Reflation trade’ could become more pronounced, if core inflation -- which is still subdued in Poland -- rises more sharply and the ECB hints at an exit strategy from QE. Impacts Robust economic data...