Uncertainty, the critical basis of risk management

The objective of this paper is to scan the extent of uncertainty and hesitation in the development of plans and strategy.

The author evokes concrete cases of risk aversion, when the action either goes ahead or is stymied by lack of certitude. The incidents cited are of practical – rather than of theoretical – connotation.

This essay shows that the willful overcoming of missing assuredness may sometimes incur, in its turn, hazardous risk.

The paper illustrates the roles of intelligence, the measurement of precaution, and the willingness or failure to gamble on the (sometimes) long shot.