Anatomy of a long boom provoking a dynamic economy in the 21st century Available to Purchase

The world stands on the threshold of a tantalizing opportunity: the possibility of a sustained economic boom over the first decades of the next millennium. This article outlines the confluence of forces – particularly the transition to a knowledge society, the emergence of a global economy and the pursuit of environmental sustainability – which could come together to propel huge improvements in wealth‐creating capacity and wellbeing world‐wide. The transition to a knowledge economy and society over the next few decades opens up the possibility of massive productivity gains. Equally significant, stimulus for a long boom could emerge from the creation of much more deeply integrated global markets for goods, services, capital and technology. Finally, the long boom could be sustained by a cooperative push to redirect the path of humanity’s relationship to the environment – a change entailing massive investments in new, less resource‐intensive patterns of consumption and methods of production. The unleashing of these dynamic forces hinges on two basic policy thrusts. First, economic dynamism in general and a long boom in particular will demand exceptional efforts – nationally and internationally – to encourage continuous innovation and high levels of investment. Second, with the prospects for a long boom contingent on the realization of a leap in the levels of international cooperation, decision makers will have to consider bold new approaches to negotiating and reconciling conflicting interests and divergent needs.